Mathematics in Major Accident Risk Assessment

The proceedings of a conference organized by the Institute of Mathematics and its Applications, the Institute of Statisticians and the Safety and Reliability Society are detailed in this volume, which explores mathematical techniques for the modelling of large scale industrial accidents. The volume has been divided into three main sections, covering the treatment of failure estimation, the modelling of accident consequences and the evaluation of uncertainty in risk estimates.Table of ContentThe challenge facing risk assessment, L.E.J.Roberts; phenomena of failure, failure modes of plant materials and probabilistic fracture mechanics, B.Tomkins et al; probabilistic methods in the development of mathematical models of systems failure, J.K.W.Davies; estimation of event frequencies - system reliability, component reliability data, fault tree analysis, P.Andow; pilot study methods based on generic failure rate estimates, N.J.Holloway; the use of integral models for predicting jet flows, A.D.Birch and D.R.Brown; dense cloud behaviour in momentum jets dispersion, M.C.Emerson; evaporation and boiling of liquid pools - a unified treatment, D.M.Webber; dispersion of dense vapour clouds in contact with the ground - theory and experiment, J.S.Puttock; theoretical models of combustion phenomena relevant to risk assessment, J.B.Moss; the calculation and evaluation of risk estimates, R.F.Griffiths; the effect of macro modelling assumptions on risk analysis results, M.A.English and P.J.Waite; controlling principles for the assignment of probability densitites for uncertainty propagation, I.Cook and S.D.Unwin; uncertainty in risk analysis, P.Baybutt.